2025 Ce Ta Fi Kowacce Shekara Tayar Da Hankali —John Simpson

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Daga Rabiu Ali Indabawa

Gargadi: Wannan rahoto na dauke da bayanai masu tayar da hankali.

Na yi rahoto kan yake-yake fiye da 40 a fadin duniya a aikina na jarida, tun daga shekarun 1960.

Na ga yadda yakin Cacar Baka ya fara da kuma yadda ya yi kasa. To amma ban taba ganin shekara mai tayar da hankali kamar 2025 ba saboda yawan rikice-rikice da suka yi ta faruwa.

Shugaban Ukraine Bolodymyr ya yi gargadin cewa rikicin da ke faruwa a kasarsa ka iya zama yakin duniya. Bayan kwashe shekaru kusan 60 ina lura da yake-yake to ina jin a jikina cewa abin da ya fada gaske ne.

Gwamnatoci mambobin kungiyar tsaro ta Nato sun kasance a cikin halin ko-ta-kwana domin mayar da martani idan har Rasha ta katse wayoyin karkashin teku da ke tafiyar da harkokin latironi ga yammacin Turai.

Ana zargin jirginsu maras matuki na takalar tsarin tsaron kasashen na Nato. Masu yi musu kutse sun fito da wasu hanyoyi na hana ma’aikatu da manyan ma’aikatu aiki.

Hukumomi a yammaci suna da tabbacin cewa hukumar leken asiri ta Rasha tana kashe wadanda ke hamayya da gwamnati wandanda ke neman mafaka a Turai.

Wani bincike da aka fara kan yadda aka kashe tsohon ma’aikacin leken asirin Rasha a Salisbury, Sergei Skrypal a 2018 da kuma kisan Dawn Sturgess da guba, ya karkare cewa harin na shugabanni ne na Rasha. Hakan na nuni da cewa daga shugaban Rashar ne, Bladimir Putin.

Yadda shekarar ta zama ta daban

Shekarar 2025 ta zamo mai cike da yake-yake.

Ukraine na daga ciki, inda Majalisar Dinkin Duniya ta ce farar hula 14,000 sun mutu. A Gaza kuma inda Firaiministan Isra’ila, Benjamin Netanayhu ya yi alkawarin daukar ’mummunar ramuwar gayya” bayan da Hamas ta kai wani hari a Isra’ilar a ranar 7 ga watan Okotoban 2023 inda ya yi sanadiyyar mutuwar mutum 120,000 sannan suka yi garkuwa da mutum 251.

Kuma tun lokacin ne dakarun Isra’ila suka kashe Falasdinawa fiye da 70,000 da suka hada da mata da kananan yara 30,000 kamar yadda ma’aikatar lafiya ta Gaza ta shaida, alkaluman da kuma Majalisar Dinkin Duniya ta yi amanna da su.

A hannu daya kuma akwai mugun yakin basasa tsakanin bangarorin sojojin Sudan. A tsawon shekaru biyu an kashe farar hula fiye da 150,000 sannan an tilasta wa mutum fiye da 12 yin hijira.

Watakila, idan da a ce wannan ne kawai yaki a 2025, duniya za ta iya tsayar da shi to amma ba shi kadai ba ne.

Banda Yakin Cacar-Baki, mafi yawan rikice-rikicen da na ruwaito a tsawon shekaru sun kasance kanana amma masu hadari, amma kuma ba su kai matakin barazana ga zaman lafiyar duniya gaba daya ba.

Wasu rikice-rikice kamar Bietnam da yakin Gulf na farko, da yakin Kosobo a wasu lokuta sun yi kama da wadanda za su iya rikidewa zuwa wani abu mafi muni, amma hakan bai taba faruwa ba.

Manyan kasashen duniya sun yi taba fargabar cewa yakin kasa daya zai iya rikidewa zuwa yakin nukiliya.

“Ba zan fara yakin Duniya na Uku don ku ba,” in ji Janar na Birtaniya Sir Mike Jackson a rediyo a Kosobo a shekarar 1999, lokacin da babban jami’in Nato ya umurci sojojin Birtaniya da Faransa su kwace filin jirgin sama a Pristina bayan sojojin Rasha sun isa wurin farko.

A shekara mai zuwa wato 2026, duk da cewa Rasha ta lura da rashin sha’awar Shugaba Trump game da Turai, tana nuna shirin samun iko mafi girma.

A farkon watan nan, Putin ya ce Rasha ba ta shirin yaki da Turai, amma a shirye take “yanzu” idan har yakin Turawa suke so.

A wani taron talabijin, ya ce: “Ba za a sami wata matsala ba idan kuka girmama mu, da muradunmu kamar yadda muke yi kokari koyaushe mu girmama naku.”

Amma a halin yanzu, Rasha, babbar kasa mai karfi a duniya, ta kai hari kan wata kasa mai ‘yanci a Turai, abin da ya yi sanadiyyar mutuwar mutane da yawa ciki har da sojoji da fararen hula.

Ukraine na zargin Rasha da sace akalla yara 20,000.

Kotun hukunta manyan laifuka ta duniya (ICC) ta bayar da umarnin kama Shugaban Rasha, Bladimir Putin, saboda hannusa a wannan lamari, hukuncin da Rasha ta nuna rashin amincewa da shi.

Rasha na cewa ta kai harin ne don kare kanta daga barazanar Nato, amma Shugaba Putin ya nuna wani dalili da ya hada da burin dawo da ikon Rasha a yankin da ke kewaye da ita.

Rashin amincewar Amurka

Na fahimci cewa a cikin wannan shekarar ta 2025, an ga wani abu da yawancin kasashen Yamma suka dauka ba zai taba faruwa ba wato yiwuwar shugaban Amurka ya juya baya ga tsarin tsaro da aka kafa tun bayan Yakin Duniya na Biyu.

A sabon rahoton dabarun tsaron kasa na gwamnatin Trump, an ce Turai na fuskantar “babbar barazanar samun koma-baya.”

Kremlin ya yi maraba da wannan rahoto, yana mai cewa ya dace da irin hangen nesan da Rasha ke da shi.

A cikin Rasha kuma, a cewar wakilin Majalisar Dinkin Duniya kan hakkin dan’adam, Shugaba Putin ya murkushe mafi yawan masu adawa da shi da kuma yakin Ukraine.

Sai dai duk da haka, Putin na fuskantar matsaloli a gida, ciki har da yiwuwar hauhawar farashi da raguwar kudin shiga na man fetur, da kuma karin haraji domin samun kudin yaki.

Tattalin arzikin kasashen Tarayyar Turai ya ninka na Rasha sau 10, kuma ya fi haka ma idan aka hada da Birtaniya.

Yawan al’ummar Turai, kimanin mutum miliyan 450, ya fi na Rasha sau uku, wadda ke da miliyan 145.

Duk da haka, kasashen Yammacin Turai sun yi ta nuna tsoro na rasa jin dadin rayuwarsu, kuma har zuwa kwanan nan ba sa son kashe kudi wajen kare kansu muddin suna iya shawo kan Amurka ta ci gaba da ba su kariya.

Amurka ma yanzu ta sauya. Ba ta da tasiri kamar da, ta fi karkata zuwa harkokinta na cikin gida, kuma ta bambanta da Amurkar da na yi aikin dauko rahoto.

Kamar yadda ya kasance a tsakankanin shekarun 1920 da 1930, yanzu Amurka na son mayar da hankali kan muradunta na cikin kasa ne kawai.

Ko da Shugaba Trump ya rasa karfi sosai a zaben majalisa na tsakiyar wa’adi a shekara mai zuwa, akwai yiwuwar ya yi nasarar canja akalar siyasar Amurka, ta yadda ko wani shugaban Amurka ya zo a shekarar 2028, wanda yake goyon bayan Nato zai yi wahala ya yi gaggawar taimakon Turai.

Barazanar fadada rikici

Shekara mai zuwa, 2026, na nuna cewa za ta kasance mai matukar muhimmanci.

Shugaban Ukraine, Bolodymyr Zelensky, na iya ganin dole ya amince da yarjejeniyar zaman lafiya.

Tambayar ita ce: shin za a samu isassun tabbacin tsaro da za su hana Shugaba Putin sake dawowa da wata bukata a nan gaba?

Turai za ta dauki nauyi mafi girma wajen ci gaba da tallafa wa Ukraine, amma idan Amurka ta juya baya ga Ukraine, kamar yadda take yin barazanar hakan a wasu lokuta, hakan zai zama nauyi mai wahalar dauka.

Rawar da China za ta taka

A bangaren China, Shugaba Di Jinping ya yi barazana ga tsibirin Taiwan. A shekara biyu da suka gabata, daraktan hukumar leken asiri ta Amurka ta CIA William Burns ya ce Di Jinping ya umarci sojojin kasarsa su fara shirin afka wa Taiwan a shekarar 2027.

Za a yi tunanin China na da karfi da arziki a yanzu, don haka bai kamata ta damu da ra’ayin mutane ba.

Amma ba haka abin yake ba. Tun bayan hargitsin Deng Diaoping a shekarar 1989, wanda ya biyo bayan kisan kiyashin Tiananme, sai shugabannin kasar suka fara sa ido kan abin da ‘yan kasar suke so.

Abin da ya faru a 4 ga Yunin 1989 ba abu ba ne mai sauki kamar yadda wasu ke tunani. Sojoji ne dauke da bindiga suka rika bude wuta kan dalibai.

Bayan wannan sai mutane da dama ciki har da ma’aikata suka fara zanga-zanga, inda suka kuduri aniyar amfani da kashe daliban domin yunkurin kifar da gwamnatin kasar.

Kwana biyu bayan lamarin ne na shiga garin, inda na ga akalla ofishin ‘yansanda biyu da na jami’an tsaron sa kai guda uku da aka kona.

A wani layin kuma an kashe dansanda, aka kone shi.

Na dade ina dauko rahoto daga China tun daga shekarar 1989 har zuwa lokacin da kasar ta kafu ta yi arziki. Na taba kasancewa na kusa da wani babba abokin hamayyar Di mai suna Bo Dilai.

A shekarar 2013 ne aka yi wa Dilai dauren rai da rai bayan samun sa da laifin cin hanci da kashe kudi ta hanyar da ba ta dace.

Amma duk da haka, alamu na nuna cewa 2026 za ta yi kyau. Lallai China za ta kara shirin a yunkurinta na kwace Taiwan – babban burin Zi Jinping.

Watakila a kawo karshen yakin Ukraine, amma dole ya kasance Putin ya samu abin da yake so.

Idan kana tunanin yakin duniya na III yaki ne da za a yi amfani da makaman nukiliya, to lallai ka canja tunani. Akwai yiwuwar yaki ne ta bayan fage ta hanyar amfani da salon diflomasiyya da soji wajen kassara abokan gaba.

Kuma tuni an fara wannan sabon salon yakin.

Mun Ciro Muku Daga BBC Hausa

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